State pension rises lose their earnings link from 2030

Reacting to

Triple-lock reform raises questions over retirement planning (Money Marketing, 29 September 2026)

The State Pension has risen every April by the highest of earnings growth, price inflation or 2.5% since the triple lock began in 2010. From April 2030, after the next general election, that becomes a double lock: the highest of price inflation or 2.5%, with the earnings link gone. An accountant does not need a client to raise this. The State Pension already sits on the tax return of every client who draws it, and the four years before 2030 are when a pension contribution or a protection review still has time to make a difference.

What changes before 2030

The current triple lock is unaffected until the switch. Burnham was explicit about that at the Labour Party Conference: “We promised in our manifesto to keep the triple lock unchanged throughout this Parliament. I will honour that promise.” Every April rise between now and April 2030 still uses the higher of earnings growth, price inflation or 2.5%.

April 2030

when the triple lock is replaced by a double lock, after the next general election.

2.5%

the fixed floor kept under the double lock; pensions still rise by this or by inflation, whichever is higher.

£241.30

the current full weekly new State Pension, £12,547.60 a year, unaffected until the switch.

67

the State Pension age most people affected by the change are already moving to, rising from 66 between 2026 and 2028.

Announced by the Prime Minister at the Labour Party Conference, 29 September 2026, as reported by Money Marketing and Professional Adviser; State Pension rate and age timetable, gov.uk.

The double lock drops the earnings-growth option from the calculation. The government has said it intends the State Pension to keep its value relative to earnings over time some other way, but has not yet published how.

Where the State Pension already sits in the file

For a client past State Pension age who still files a return, because of rental income, dividends or continuing self-employment, the State Pension is already declared as income, box by box, every year. For a client years from drawing it, the number that matters is the forecast: the amount their National Insurance record currently produces, checked through their own government gateway account.

A director drawing dividends alongside a State Pension, a self-employed client with no workplace pension, and a couple retiring in the same year are three situations this reaches first. Research by My Pension Expert, reported by Money Marketing on 29 September 2026, found that 79% of over-55s are concerned that changes to the State Pension or the triple lock could leave them ‘financially worse off’.

A couple reviewing paperwork together at home

Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Labour Party Conference, 29 September 2026: “We promised in our manifesto to keep the triple lock unchanged throughout this Parliament. I will honour that promise.”

A worked example

This example uses illustrative growth figures. The State Pension rate is the real 2026/27 rate.

Take a full new State Pension of £12,547.60 a year. Suppose, in a single illustrative year, earnings grow by 4.1% and price inflation runs at 2.9%; both are made up, chosen only to show the mechanism.

One year’s rise, compared

Illustrative growth figures on the real 2026/27 State Pension rate

Full new State Pension, 2026/27£12,547.60

Rise under the triple lock now, at 4.1% earnings growth£514.45

Rise under the double lock from 2030, at 2.9% inflation£363.88

Difference, in this illustrative year alone£150.57

Whenever earnings grow faster than prices, the double lock produces a smaller rise than the triple lock would have produced. Whenever prices grow faster than earnings, the two locks produce the same rise, because both use the higher of inflation or 2.5%. Which pattern holds in any real year after 2030 cannot be known now; the arithmetic above only shows how the two formulas diverge when it does.

Accountancy work and regulated advice

Accountancy work

Reading a State Pension forecast or a return that already includes it, and noticing how many years remain before April 2030.

Regulated advice

Working out what a client should do about the difference, whether that means a larger pension contribution, a change to when a private pension is drawn, or a protection review, sits with the Equity & General financial planner.

The division is set out in what the accountant does and what the financial planner does. An introduction, where the client agrees to one, is made through the partner portal in the firm’s name, and the firm sees it tracked from the first call through to advice implemented.

Two things to check this week

List clients within ten years of State Pension age. The State Pension age is 66, rising to 67 between 2026 and 2028. Anyone in that band retires either side of the April 2030 switch, and is the group most affected by the change.
Read the State Pension figure on any return that already carries one. For a client past State Pension age still filing a return, the amount is already declared every year. Comparing that figure with a private pension forecast gives the accountant a reason to ask whether the client would like a conversation with the Equity & General financial planner.

What is not yet settled

The government has said the double lock will keep the State Pension’s value in line with earnings over time, but by 29 September 2026 it had not published the mechanism that does it, and neither Money Marketing nor Professional Adviser’s coverage of the announcement gave a date for further detail. Until that mechanism is published, the size of the gap between a triple-lock rise and a double-lock rise cannot be calculated for any real year, only illustrated, as the worked example above does using assumed growth figures. Treat any specific pound figure quoted for years after 2030 as an estimate until the detail is confirmed.

Common questions

Does the change to the triple lock affect the State Pension before 2030?

No. The Prime Minister was explicit at the Labour Party Conference on 29 September 2026 that the current triple lock stays in place for the rest of this Parliament: the State Pension will keep rising every April by the highest of earnings growth, price inflation or 2.5% until the switch. The double lock, which drops the earnings-growth option and rises by the highest of price inflation or 2.5%, starts in April 2030, after the next general election. A client already receiving the State Pension, or due to reach State Pension age before then, sees no change to how their April rise is worked out until that date arrives.

Can an accountant tell a client what the change means for their retirement income?

Not as a recommendation. An accountant can point to what is already on file: the State Pension figure on a return for a client who draws it, or the forecast available through a client's own government gateway account for a client who does not yet. Saying that the number stops rising with earnings from 2030, and asking whether the client would like a conversation with the Equity & General financial planner about it, is an observation about the file. Recommending a pension contribution, an investment or a change to when someone stops work is regulated advice, and sits with the financial planner.

Why does this change matter more for self-employed clients?

The FCA's Financial Lives 2024 survey found that 8.6% of UK adults had taken regulated financial advice on investments, pensions or retirement planning in the previous twelve months, and 13% of self-employed adults had. A self-employed client has no workplace pension scheme built around them and no employer contribution running in the background, so the State Pension carries more weight in what they will have to live on. The accountant preparing their return is the person who already sees their income every year, and the four years before April 2030 are the practical window for a pension contribution to be raised as a question.

Where does the State Pension appear in records an accountant already holds?

For a client past State Pension age who still files a return, because of rental income, dividends or continuing self-employment, the State Pension is declared as income on the return every year, in the same boxes each time. For a client years from drawing it, the relevant figure is the forecast produced by their National Insurance record, available through their own government gateway account. Comparing what a client already receives against what they are forecast to receive shows what the announcement means for that client.

What is still unclear about how the double lock will work?

The government has said the double lock will keep the State Pension's value in line with earnings over time, but by 29 September 2026 it had not published the mechanism that does it, and neither Money Marketing nor Professional Adviser's coverage of the announcement gave a date for further detail. Until that mechanism is published, the size of the gap between a triple-lock rise and a double-lock rise cannot be calculated for any real year, only illustrated, as the worked example above does using assumed growth figures. Treat any specific pound figure quoted for years after 2030 as an estimate until the detail is confirmed.